outlook crashes when opening says resources low

Indeed, activity in leading industrial-driven economies like China and Germany is picking up, with the China PMI and German Ifo Business Climate Index both having recovered from lows reached in September-October 2022. Now, however, signs have started to emerge that manufacturing may be bouncing back as surplus inventories are drawn down. In fact, according to purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys of manufacturing business leaders, global exports of manufactured goods, and revenues of manufacturing firms, factory output actually fell into a recession at the end of last summer. Global manufacturing has lagged in the post-pandemic era as inventory shortages turned to gluts last year, even as global demand for services (like travel and entertainment) boomed. The global economy, meanwhile, may have hit an inflection point amid signs manufacturing activity is crawling from its trough. As a result, an inverted yield curve is likely to be a key feature of the Treasury market in 2023. Where does that leave us now? Estimates of the terminal rate for interest rates are rising, while the Fed's rate hikes continue to push the yield curve to more steeply inverted levels. Each recession is different, but the historical pattern has been consistent. In past cycles, intermediate- and long-term bond yields have tended to stay low or keep falling until the Fed is near the end of its rate-hiking cycle-and bottom out at the onset of recession.

The Fed has allowed the yield curve to remain inverted, with longer-term yields below short-term yields. The Fed's messaging combined with stronger-than-expected labor market data have renewed concerns that a bond bear market, with falling prices and rising yields, may be coming. We will keep at it until inflation comes down.'

Treasury yields have rebounded from their lows in recent weeks because the message from Fed officials is clear: 'We're not done hiking rates.

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Outlook crashes when opening says resources low